Energy Markets • ESCALATING

Brent crude at $103.79 with a $14.46 WTI spread; the widest since 2011; signals physical delivery constraint, not paper speculation.

U.S. Defense Posture • ESCALATING

Pentagon's $200 billion supplemental request includes emergency interceptor production authorities after spending $15 billion in 19 days.

Domestic Legislation • DEVELOPING

Senate leaders sent a bipartisan SAVE Act deal to the House for a second time Thursday, signaling a durable standoff on the bill's core provisions.

Indo-Pacific Security • DEVELOPING

USS Tripoli, an Okinawa-based Marine expeditionary unit traditionally assigned to Indo-Pacific contingencies, redeployed this week to the Persian Gulf.

Semiconductor Supply Chain • DEVELOPING

Iran war threatens AI chip supply as critical mineral access routes; including helium from Ras Laffan; intersect with the active conflict zone.

Domestic Energy Law • EMERGING

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed antitrust claims Thursday against the fossil fuel industry for allegedly acting as a cartel to sideline renewable energy and EVs.

Maritime Trade & Sanctions Evasion • DEVELOPING

Panamanian-flagged Tiger Wings, carrying Russian crude, moored off the Petron oil refinery in the Philippines; a routing pattern consistent with third-country sanctions bypass.

92.3% accuracy • 202 resolved • Brier 0.09